Over the next decade, the fragmented antibacterials market will shift away from a blockbuster-business model, as generic erosion of market leaders and increased competition between new hospital drugs will trigger a decline in sales of branded antibacterials. While there is a lack of innovation with regards to new community drugs, the hospital sector will remain the only notable source ofgrowth.

In 2009, antibacterial sales in the seven major markets totalled $19.6bn, declining at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.6% since 2005. This decline was largely caused by generic erosion of market-leading community brands, such as Zithromax and Klacid, combined with a paucity of new product launches.
Over the next decade, genericization of key brands will drive a significant decline in market value, contributing to a loss of revenues from Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic, Zosyn/Tazocin, and Zyvox alone of $3.2bn by 2019. Combined with growing resistance, this will cause increasing market fragmentation and reduce the potential for "blockbuster" sales.
The late-stage pipeline, much of which is targeting MRSA, will generate revenues totaling nearly $2.0bn by 2019. However, Datamonitor predicts that this upside will be insufficient to offset the decline caused by genericization, and total seven major market sales will fall from $19.6bn in 2009 to $16.4bn in 2019, with a CAGR of -1.8%.

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